Cornelius, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS62 KGSP 050729
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
329 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward along the Carolina
coast today keeping rain chances around. Brief drying returns
tonight into early Friday before a couple of cold fronts bring
unsettled weather back to the region this weekend into early the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday: Weak tropical disturbance currently
moving north over the Georgia Coastal Plain will work north
and move along the Carolina Coastal Plain through the daytime
period. Scattered rainbands will traverse across the area as
a result, especially along and east of I-77 where PWAT values
rise close to 2.00" and being closer in vicinity to the surface
low. Outside of the CLT metro, QPF response is rather light
and total amounts through the afternoon likely remains under
0.25". Localized heavier showers and embedded thunder will traverse
over the CLT Metro as better instability will be available to
go along with deeper saturated vertical profiles to support
convectively-driven, localized 0.50`-1.00+" amounts. Very warm
and humid conditions will continue as the tropical wave lifts
north and a deeper Atlantic Fetch filters in with almost due
easterly component through the daytime period and warm thicknesses
staying put as the upper ridge continues to lift to the north
and east. Thicker cloud cover will hang out along and east of
I-77 in association with the tropical disturbance and higher PoPs,
while more scattering and deeper mixing occurs in the NC mountains,
northeast Georgia, and western Upstate where temperatures will climb
to near normal values, while the NC foothills/Piedmont and eastern
Upstate remain a category or so below normal for afternoon highs.

The tropical disturbance will be in the midst of shifting offshore
the North Carolina Coast overnight tonight, leading to the CFWA
placed in the subsidence quadrant of the disturbance. Expect a
period of drier air filtering in across the area, while clouds try
to scatter and dewpoints lower. In this case, mostly dry conditions
with clouds hanging out overnight tonight, with lows dropping to
near-normal values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday: The coastal low moves away from the area
Friday as a cold front sags toward the area from the northwest.
After a dry start, convection develops in the moderately unstable
air mass. Highest PoP will be across the mountains, trailing off
south of I-85. Convection may organize across TN and move into the
mountains late in the day into the evening. With moderate shear,
some of this convection may survive leading to isolated severe
storms. Highs will be around 5 degrees above normal and lows around
10 degrees below normal. The air mass remains unstable across the
area Saturday as the front remains to our northwest. Effective shear
will be higher even though bulk shear will be a little lower. There
is also DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e to enhance severe potential.
Highest PoP remains across the mountains, but overall PoP is higher
across the area, with a mainly diurnal max, but showers could linger
through the night. Highs and lows around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday: Unsettled weather is expected through the
period. The cold front to the northwest moves into the area Sunday
then dissipates as another slowly moving cold front approaches from
the northwest. This front moves into the area Wednesday. With the
unstable air mass remaining in place, convection is expected each
day, with highest PoP Tuesday and Wednesday. Shear remains elevated
as well, so severe storms will be possible each day, but coverage is
uncertain. Highs will be above normal for all but Tuesday when they
will be near normal. Lows will be near normal across the mountains
and around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR for now, but low stratus is expected
to fill in over the next few hours and expand to all TAF sites
besides KAVL, with MVFR cigs at the Upstate sites and KHKY, while
KCLT is expected to drop to IFR by daybreak, being where the better
moisture is located. Cigs should remain MVFR/IFR through the morning
hours before gradually lifting to low-end VFR and scattering
out by peak heating. Shower coverage still expected to grow in
coverage through the morning hours, especially over KCLT as a weak
tropical disturbance moves along the Georgia/Carolinas Coastal
Plain through the period. Decided to place a prevailing -SHRA at
KCLT 09Z through ~19Z to best capture the rainfall potential, but
coverage will likely be off and on through this time frame. The
other TAF sites will be too far west for good coverage in precip
and will only receive sporadic showers, which allowed for a VCSH
mention to remain in the prevailing lines through much of the
daytime period. PROB30s for TSRA and associated restrictions
have been placed at KCLT and KHKY during the afternoon hours as
thunderstorm fuel will be highest at these terminals during that
time. Any precip should end by 00Z Friday as the bulk of the
precip shifts well east of the area. East-northeasterly winds
are expected through much of the daytime period before toggling
more west-northwesterly overnight tonight as the orientation of
the tropical disturbance lifts northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic
Coast. KAVL will maintain a northwesterly component through the
morning and guidance continue to support a down-valley wind out
of the south-southeast during the afternoon before returning to
an up-valley northwesterly component sometime after sunset. Drier
air will filter in overnight tonight and limit any potential for
widespread vsby/cig restrictions, but can`t be totally ruled out,
especially in locations that receive steadier rainfall.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC